CO Meeting Organizer 4ICESM

Poster programme II.

II.

Decadal prediction and attribution

Convenors: Jochem Marotzke , Gabriele Hegerl

Oral programme

/ Mon, 28 Aug, 11:00–12:20 / Room Helmut-Schmidt-Auditorium
/ Tue, 29 Aug, 09:00–10:15 / 15:30–17:05 / Room Helmut-Schmidt-Auditorium

Poster programme

/ Attendance Tue, 29 Aug, 13:45–15:30 / Poster area

Attendance Time: Tuesday, 29 August 2017, 13:45–15:30 Poster area Chairperson: Jochem Marotzke/Gabi Hegerl
P48	4ICESM-159 Interbasin effects on subdecadal climate modulation relevant to global warming hiatus T. Mochizuki, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto

P49	4ICESM-131 Decadal climate regimes and the "hiatus" P. Carl

P50	4ICESM-7 Future Changes in Propagating and Non-propagating Diurnal Rainfall over East Asia W.-R. Huang and S.-Y. Wang

P51	4ICESM-46 Drought situation under Climate change scenario M. K. Das, J. U. Khan, and A. K. M. S. Islam

P52	4ICESM-90 Frequency of thermal extremes in arid and semiarid regions of Pakistan S. Hina, F. Saleem, and R. Lu

P53	4ICESM-16 \| presentation Non–Gaussianity of the atmospheric variability and its relationship with extreme weather events S. V. Loginov, A. V. Eliseev, and I. I. Mokhov

P54	4ICESM-177 A worm's-eye view on intraseasonal climate dynamics P. Carl

P55	4ICESM-48 Paradox in Tropical storm genesis frequency decreasing and Genesis Potential index increasing after late 1990’s over the western North Pacific C. H. Tsou, H. Y. Chiang, and P. C. Hsu

P56	4ICESM-154 Storm tide assessment with climate variability -Tropical Cyclone Debbie case study G Faivre, S Lee, R Tomlinson, and J Shuker

P57	4ICESM-116 Atlantic Inflow to the North Sea Modulated by the Subpolar Gyre V. Koul, J. Baehr, and C. Schrum

P58	4ICESM-156 Multiyear climate prediction with initialization based on 4D-Var coupled data assimilation T. Mochizuki, S. Masuda, and Y. Ishikawa

P59	4ICESM-30 Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific H. Pohlmann, J. Kröger, R. J. Greatbatch, and W. A. Müller

P60	4ICESM-59 Full-field versus anomaly initialization in the MiKlip decadal prediction system: An initial shock in the North Atlantic J. Kröger, H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, J. Marotzke, J. Baehr, A. Köhl, K. Modali, Y. Polkova, D. Stammer, F. Vamborg, and W. A. Müller

P61	4ICESM-66 Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts with MPI-ESM S. Brune, A. Düsterhus, H. Pohlmann, W. A. Müller, and J. Baehr

P62	4ICESM-93 Representation and Predictability of European Blocking Frequency in the MiKlip Decadal Prediction System A. Richling, H. W. Rust, and U. Ulbrich

P63	4ICESM-110 Predictability of multi-year SST trends in the North Pacific in an MPI-ESM hindcast ensemble K. N. Wiegand, S. Brune, and J. Baehr

P64	4ICESM-136 Assimilating soil moisture into an Earth System Model T. Stacke and S. Hagemann

P65	4ICESM-155 \| presentation Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption with the MiKlip prediction system S. Illing, C. Kadow, C. Timmreck, and H. Pohlmann

P66	4ICESM-169 Climate Change Detection and Attribution: Joint fingerprinting and Bayesian decision A. Hense, H. Weinert, and M. Ritschel

P67	4ICESM-121 Predictability of the PDO in MPI-ESM on decadal timescales K. Pankatz, K. Fröhlich, and B. Früh

P68	4ICESM-125 Calibration of decadal ensemble predictions A. Pasternack, H. W. Rust, J. Grieger, J. Bhend, M. A. Liniger, W. Müller, and U. Ulbrich

P69	4ICESM-166 Interrelationships beween different scores in decadal prediction evaluation A. Hense and R. Glowienka-Hense

P70	4ICESM-128 Stratified verification of winter windstorms J. Grieger, I. Höschel, and U. Ulbrich

P71	4ICESM-158 Comparative studio for compute of prognosis for extreme rainfall obtained by Gumbel extreme value method versus unconventional method based on time series and IDW method using return period (withdrawn) J. F. Ángeles-Islas, A. E. Juárez-Hernández, and R. Zepeda-Bautista

P72	4ICESM-70 Construction of reduced empirical prognostic model by climate data A. Gavrilov, A. Seleznev, D. Mukhin, E. Loskutov, and A. Feigin

P73	4ICESM-145 The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology M. Bittner, K.-H. Wieners, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Giorgetta, S. Legutke, M. Esch, V. Gayler, I. Stemmler, P. de Vrese, and H. Haak and the CMIP6-Team

P74	4ICESM-85 Committed warming inferred from observations T. Mauritsen and R. Pincus

P75	4ICESM-152 \| presentation Tropical North Atlantic SSTs linked to European summer temperature variability? N.-C. Neddermann, W. Müller, and J. Baehr

P76	4ICESM-54 Emergent constraints to understand CMIP5 model diversity in simulating the teleconnection between Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and European temperature S. Qasmi, C. Cassou, and J. Boé

P77	4ICESM-103 Attribution of upper-ocean heat content changes using isothermal approach I.-H. Park and S.-K. Min

P78	4ICESM-94 Recent trend of climatic extremes in various zones of Pakistan F. Saleem, M. Adrees, F. Abbas, M. Ibrahim, and X. Zeng

P79	4ICESM-34 Detecting regional climate change using data on extreme temperatures V. Khokhlov, O. Umanska, and N. Yermolenko

P80	4ICESM-88 Unforced trends of surface solar radiation in CMIP5 D. Folini, T.N. Dallafior, M.Z. Hakuba, and M. Wild

P81	4ICESM-105 Contribution of surface solar and greenhouse forcing on the temperature sensitivity derived from spatial variations (withdrawn) M. Renner, A. Kleidon, C. Dhara, and H. Ozawa

P82	4ICESM-147 Designing a radiation code to balance flexibility and efficiency R. Pincus and E. Mlawer