Decadal prediction and attribution
|Convenors: J. Marotzke , G. Hegerl|
While decadal timescales are important for adaptation decisions, predicting and attributing climate variations on decadal timescales remains challenging. Climate shows pronounced decadal variations, most recently expressed in the so-called ‘hiatus’ period. Decadal climate variability also shows a strong imprint on the global water cycle, where regional variations link to annual and decadal variability, and on a changing risk of climate extremes. This session focuses on predicting and attributing climate variations on decadal timescales. We encourage submissions on attributing climate variations and change to external forcing and climate variability, and on predicting climate on decadal timescales, both using initial conditions and using forcing and constraints based on observations. We particularly encourage submissions that touch on predicting and attributing the changing risk of extreme weather and climate events.