From Observation to Action: Enhancing Forecasting Capabilities over Lake Victoria Through Radar Analysis and Regional Collaboration

Lake Victoria Basin (LVB), home to over 40 million people in East Africa, plays a vital role in the region’s economy, particularly through fishing and agriculture. However, this densely populated area lies in a global hotspot for convective activity, making it highly vulnerable to severe weather hazards. With one of the world’s fastest-growing populations and climate change projections suggesting a future with more extreme weather and stronger thunderstorms, the region faces increasing societal exposure to natural hazards.

The region’s complex topography and land-lake interactions contribute to frequent nocturnal severe storms. Each year, a high death toll of ~1000 fishermen occurs due to high waves resulting from severe convective winds. Furthermore, the basin region has experienced a rise in destructive hailstorms and flood-producing rains. Unfortunately, despite the growing risk, only 40% of Africa’s population has access to Early Warning advisory systems, and less than 4% of global climate change research funding is allocated to the continent.

Building effective research-to-operations pathways remains difficult due to limited sustainable observational systems for weather monitoring, forecasting and warning. Nevertheless, initiatives like the World Meteorological Organization’s “High Impact Weather Lake System” project, launched in 2017, have made impressive progress. For instance, the 2019 project-related field campaign used S- and C-band dual-polarization radars to collect high-resolution data on convective storms over the lake, advancing scientific understanding and forecasting capacity.

Capacity-building has continued through workshops led by the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems and the Severe Weather Forecasting Project (WMO), among others. The two most recent workshops, in Kigali, Rwanda, in 2023, and in Entebbe, Uganda, in 2025, gathered forecasters from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of nine East African countries. These WMO training sessions focused on nowcasting techniques, radar and satellite-based severe weather identification, modeling, and collaborative case study analysis. They also facilitated ongoing discussions on forecasting needs and operational challenges across the region.

This work highlights the current state of radar-based severe weather research in Lake Victoria, showcasing severe weather events like waterspouts and downbursts (in the tropics!) in a poorly observed area of the world, as well as operational difficulties. It shares lessons learned from regional training and collaboration while identifying critical gaps and opportunities for international cooperation. These collective efforts aim to improve monitoring, nowcasting, forecasting capabilities, and communication and warning systems, ultimately supporting the goal of building a more resilient LVB through science, training, and cross-border collaboration.