Enhancing the collaboration and communication between weather and flood forecasting in Germany following a Co-Design approach

In recent years, several regions in Germany experienced devastating floods caused by heavy precipitation events, often associated with severe convective storms. To improve the prediction of such events and corresponding warning strategies, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) is intensifying its collaboration with Germany’s flood forecasting authorities.  DWD has significantly enhanced and diversified its forecasting strategies through a range of new model systems. With a focus on seamless and probabilistic prediction in combination with more frequent initializations, DWD’s novel Seamless Integrated Forecasting System (SINFONY) marks a major step forward in predicting severe summertime convective events and heavy precipitation within a lead time of minutes to approximately 12 hours. Additional advancements include the development of 500 m high-resolution NWP with ICON as well as the establishment of an AI center and the integration of AI-based forecasting methods– all together paving the way for next-generation weather forecast systems.  Beyond the improvement of forecasting techniques, DWD is placing strong emphasis on collaboration and communication with regional flood forecasting centers, including coordinated outreach to local disaster management authorities. To that end, the joint “Co-Design Project” was launched in 2023 together with regional German Flood Forecasting Centers, aiming to strengthen the hydrometeorological value chain. It is part of DWD’s new binational research initiative “Italia–Deutschland science-4-services network in weather and climate (IDEA-S4S)”.  The project focuses on identifying user needs, creating a shared knowledge base for forecast evaluation, developing tailored forecast and warning tools, and supporting decision-making in the face of diverse and uncertain weather predictions. Its four main activities include: 

• a user-oriented evaluation of DWD’s precipitation forecasts
• the establishment of standardized hydrological verification and thereupon analysis of (new) DWD forecasts within operational flood forecasting models
• the tailoring of DWD’s new warning system to meet requirements of flood forecasting centers
• a serious game and E-Learning initiative to improve the communication along the entire warning chain of rainfall and flood forecasts for better decision-making.

This contribution provides an overview of the “Co-Design Project”. We will share first results and progress, and look forward to exchanging experiences with other initiatives at the operational intersection of meteorology and hydrology.