Sensitivity of Supercell Environments to Orographic Modifications

It is well established that more pronounced terrain asymmetries are associated with a greater potential for terrain-induced modifications of the adjacent atmosphere, influencing both thermodynamic and kinematic conditions. Such modifications, particularly when locally enhanced, may contribute to an increased likelihood of supercell storm development. Although terrain effects on convective environments have received growing attention over the past decade, the extent to which orographic features influence mesoscale environments conducive to supercell formation remains an open question. Building upon recent research focused on supercell environments over mountainous regions in Europe, which demonstrated that high-resolution numerical weather prediction models can capture localized terrain-induced enhancements of supercell-favorable conditions, this study aims to further investigate the role of topography using a targeted modeling approach. We employ the COSMO model to simulate a set of supercell events that occurred over Central Europe during the 2015–2019 period, selecting days with observed supercell activity. In each simulation, the orography of the Carpathian Mountains is systematically modified to isolate the effects of changing the height and volume of mountain ranges, intermontane basins, and surrounding lowlands. For each orographic scenario, we evaluate key diagnostic parameters known to characterize supercell environments, such as thermodynamic instability and vertical wind shear. The resulting changes in these parameters are analyzed to quantify the influence of terrain on the mesoscale environment. Additionally, we assess how these terrain alterations affect the modeled predictability of supercell occurrence, with implications for both operational forecasting and the understanding of terrain–storm interactions.