A Real-Time Radar-Based Lightning Prediction and Risk Alert System

 In 2024, a total of 145,784 cloud-to-ground(CG) lightning strikes were observed over inland regions of the Korean Peninsula, representing a 43.83% increase compared to the 10-year average from 2015 to 2024 and nearly a 99% increase compared to the previous year (Lightning Annual Report, 2024). Lightning events predominantly occur during between June and September, when atmospheric instability promotes vigorous convective cell development. These lightning events, often associated with rapidly evolving convective systems, can cause significant human casualties as well as substantial socio-economic damage.
 To monitor lightning activity in real time, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) operates 21 LINET (Lightning NETwork) observation systems around the Korean Peninsula. In support of operational forecasting, KMA has also developed and operates several lightning prediction models. Two major lightning nowcasting models are currently in use. The first model is a lightning nowcasting model based on radar motion vectors using MAPLE (McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation), which generates lightning forecasts at 10-minute intervals for up to 6 hours. One-hour forecasts are delivered through a mobile application that provides users with location-based lightning alerts, enabling them to be informed of lightning threats within the next hour regardless of their location.
 The second model detects lightning initiation signals using data from three-dimensional dual-polarization radar, hydrometeor classification, and objectively analyzed temperature fields. This Real-Time Radar-Based Lightning Risk Alert Service radar-based detection system identifies areas with a high probability of lightning occurrence by analyzing dual-polarization parameters (Z, ZDR, KDP, VIL) and hydrometeors (graupel, hail) at altitudes below 0°C. The results are provided to forecasters in two-dimensional form every 5 minutes at a 500-meter spatial resolution. These data are useful for identifying high-risk areas 5 to 20 minutes before lightning occurrence, enabling preemptive response actions. KMA continues to improve the accuracy of lightning prediction and enhance service capabilities, with the goal of minimizing lightning-related damage and ensuring public safety.