HS10.1/AS4.3/NP5.4

Ensemble hydrological forecasting: from theory to practice (co-organized)
Convener: Prof. Ranzi  | Co-Convener: F Pappenberger 
Oral Programme
 / Mon, 20 Apr, 13:30–15:00  / Room 32
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Mon, 20 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Hall A
The session aims to bring together hydrological and meteorological communities to demonstrate research progress on advancing hydrologic ensemble forecast techniques. Of high value for the discussion will be also the experience gained within some real-time hydrological forecasting experiments conducted in the recent years, as MAP D-PHASE or those framed within HEPEX using ensemble methods, not only starting from meteorological forecasts, but also from radar or rain gauge data interpolation, soil moisture and other hydrological parameters ensembles. It also aims to assess the reliability of hydrological ensemble predictions, with focus to the short and medium term. Further, guidance for improved decision making in emergency management based on ensemble forecasting will be addressed. The session plans to address the following key
questions:
(i) How to efficiently embed meteorological ensemble forecasting systems into hydrological forecasting systems?
(ii) How should the hydrological ensemble prediction systems efficiently present uncertainty within a forecast given that hydrological models are imperfect representations of real hydrological systems?
(iii) How can we ensure that the hydro-meteorological data-modelling chains capture realistically the uncertainty of the hydrological forecasts and that no false alarms are issued on the basis of a wide spread of the ensemble forecasts?
(iv) To what extent can meteorological skill scores be applied for hydrological applications?
(v) How to present to the users the advantages of ensemble forecasts to efficiently support water management and emergency services?
(vi) How do end users perceive new ensemble forecast products and which is their feedback to them?