One major goal of the modelling of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change is to support probabilistic prediction and risk assessment. This session is devoted to all aspects of the research towards this goal, including model evaluation through inter-comparison projects, linking past (recent and palaeo) to future model performance and prediction, and methods for probabilistic projection, and their applications to impact assessment. Objective metrics for all aspects of these problems are fundamentally required and will be an important component of the session. User-relevant predictions of regional and local climate change, of extreme events and of catastrophic change on time scales of decades to centuries are relevant for this session.

This session represents an amalgamation of separate sessions in previous years on Anthropogenic climate change: forcing, modelling, detection-attribution and impacts, Probabilistic Forecasts of Climate and the Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Model Intercomparison: Dynamics and Physical Processes.

This session incorporates Session CL53: Probabilistic frameworks for estimating uncertainties in impacts of future climate change. With this addition, applications of probabilistic methods for quantifying the risks of future impacts of climate change will also be included.

Potential Invited Speakers: R. Prinn (MIT), D. Sexton (Hadley Centre), D. Stammer, E. Kriegler