Oral Programme CL52

CL52

Climate Prediction: Models, Diagnostics, and Uncertainty Analysis
Convener: C. E. Forest  | Co-Conveners: Collins , V. Lucarini , Carter , J. C. Hargreaves 
Oral Programme
 / Thu, 23 Apr, 08:30–12:00  / 13:30–15:00  / Room 28
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Thu, 23 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Halls X/Y

Thursday, 23 Apr 2009
Room 28
Chairperson: V. Lucarini
Model Diagnostics

08:30–08:45
EGU2009-2065
Energy balance and meridional energy transport in PCMDI/CMIP3 GCMs
V. Lucarini and F. Ragone
08:45–09:00
EGU2009-13533
Dealing with Uncertainties in Estimates of the Ocean Circulation (solicited)
D Stammer
09:00–09:15
EGU2009-6827
Co-variability of spring and autumn precipitation over France: Evidence of missing processes in current climate models?
M. Hirschi and S. I. Seneviratne
09:15–09:30
EGU2009-476
Energetics responses to increases in greenhouse gas concentration
D. Hernandez-Deckers and J. S. von Storch
09:30–09:45
EGU2009-11997
Past-performance-based model selection using a "mosaic" of models
C. Reifen and R. Toumi
09:45–10:00
EGU2009-2089
Investigation of relations between inter-model similarities for present and projected future mean climate
M. ABE, H. SHIOGAMA, J. HARGREAVES, J. ANNAN, T. NOZAWA, and S. EMORI
COFFEE BREAK
Probablistic Estimation, Detection and Attribution

10:30–10:45
EGU2009-2930
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected
G. J. van Oldenborgh, S. S. Drijfhout, A. P. van Ulden, R. Haarsma, C. Severijns, W. Hazeleger, and H. Dijkstra
10:45–11:00
EGU2009-8220
The EU 2° target and the new ENSEMBLES scenario: First results
H. Huebener and the ENSEMBLES RT2A partners
11:00–11:15
EGU2009-13330
On the detectability of a regional-scale anthropogenic climate change in Northern Europe
J. Bhend and H. von Storch
11:15–11:30
EGU2009-3181
Climate change detection based on smooth temporal patterns
A. RIBES, S. PLANTON, and J.M. AZAÏS
11:30–11:45
EGU2009-12956
Probabilistic assessment of regional climate change by ensemble dressing
C. Schoelzel and A. Hense
11:45–12:00
EGU2009-11265
Effects of climate uncertainties on welfare optimal investment streams into mitigation technologies
H. Held, E. Kriegler, K. Lessmann, and A. Lorenz
LUNCH BREAK
Uncertainties in Projections and Impacts Assessments

13:30–13:45
EGU2009-5963
Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (solicited)
R. Prinn
13:45–14:00
EGU2009-1219
Sensitivity of climate change projections to uncertainties in the estimates of observed changes in deep-ocean heat content.
A. Sokolov, C Forest, and P Stone
14:00–14:15
EGU2009-1206
From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts: A case study of water resource management in the Sout West of England
A. Lopez, F Fung, and M New
14:15–14:30
EGU2009-8122
Probabilistic projections of climate change effects on sub-arctic palsa mires using the response surface approach
S. Fronzek and T.R. Carter
14:30–14:45
EGU2009-7229
Climate Change and Projected Impacts in Agriculture: an Example on Mediterranean Crops
R. Ferrise, M. Moriondo, and M. Bindi
14:45–15:00
EGU2009-5896
Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation systems
N. M. Urban and K. Keller