The Eyjafjallajökull eruption highlighted the challenges faced by scientists, policymakers and commercial stakeholders to accurately assess, measure and communicate risks of major natural disasters. The sudden and prolonged disruption to business, trade and travel has resulted in significant economic losses, the full scale of which has yet to be realised.

Public and commercial stakeholders must develop a better understanding of how to mitigate the risks posed by natural catastrophes with high degree of uncertainty, so they can respond—rather than react to events. The scientific community provides this critical link between the theory and practice of natural catastrophes, enabling effective planning and response to events with uncertain impact.

Therefore, this session will bring together volcanologists, catastrophe modellers and risk practitioners to consider the implications of the event and its impacts for modelling and risk management. It will also consider the influence of uncertainty on the gap in between perception and reality of risk from such events and will discuss methods for dealing with that uncertainty more effectively.

Topics of discussion:
How do you estimate damage / losses from events such as Eyjafjallajökull eruption?

Real vs Perceived Risk

Implications for commercial stakeholders, including: agriculture; aviation/travel; marine; and trade/commerce.

What are the impacts on the science/research community?

How do such events change public and private policies and practice of evaluating risk?

Panelists:
Dr. Anselm Smolka (Munich Re) – Head, GeoRisks Research Munich Re
Dr. Robert Muir-Wood (RMS) – Chief Research Officer, Risk Management Solutions
Dr Augusto Neri (INGV)
Dr Matt Watson (Uni. of Bristol)
Prof. Donald Dingwell (Uni of Munich)
Prof. Euan Nesbet (Uni. of Royal Holloway)