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CL3.1/NP5.5

Decadal, seasonal and monthly forecasts (co-organized)
Convener: Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  | Co-Conveners: Geert Jan van Oldenborgh , Mark A. Liniger , Stéphane Vannitsem 
Oral Programme
 / Mon, 04 Apr, 08:30–10:00  / Room 17
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Mon, 04 Apr, 13:30–15:00  / Display Mon, 04 Apr, 08:00–19:30  / Hall XL
<table class="mo_scheduling_string" style="border-collapse: collapse; clear:left;"><tr><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span class="apl_addon_standard_action_link" style="text-decoration: none;">Poster Summaries & Discussions</span>:&nbsp;<a href="https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2011/session/8367" target="_blank" title="Open PSD22 Details" style="clear:left;">PSD22</a> &nbsp;/ <span class="mo_scheduling_string_time">Mon, 04 Apr, 12:15</span><span class="mo_scheduling_string_time">&ndash;13:00</span> &nbsp;/ <span class="mo_scheduling_string_place" title=""></span> &nbsp;</td></tr></table>
Forecasts of climate variability at the decadal, seasonal, and monthly time scales will be discussed in this session. This will include presentations and discussions of the actual forecasts for the next ten years from the different decadal prediction ensembles and statistical models. Further topics will be forecast quality assessment, physical mechanisms for skill and predictability, role of anthropogenic climate change, implementation of seamless forecasting systems, ensemble forecast generation and initialization, approaches to address model uncertainty, downscaling and calibration, and demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate change adaptation
Public information: Forecasts of climate variability at the decadal, seasonal, and monthly time scales will be discussed in this session. This will include presentations and discussions of the actual forecasts for the next ten years from the different decadal prediction ensembles and statistical models. Further topics will be forecast quality assessment, physical mechanisms for skill and predictability, role of anthropogenic climate change, implementation of seamless forecasting systems, ensemble forecast generation and initialization, approaches to address model uncertainty, downscaling and calibration, and demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate change adaptation