SM5.2/NH4.7Time-dependent earthquake occurrence and seismic hazard: physics and statistics (co-organized)
|Convener: Gert Zöller | Co-Conveners: Massimo Cocco , Mark Naylor
The occurrence of earthquakes is characterized by great spatio-temporal variability arising from complex interaction between earthquakes. In recent years significant progress has been made with respect to the understanding of scaling laws, spatiotemporal correlations, and the emergence of seismicity patterns. A new generation of physical models as well as evolving developments in the field of statistical seismology have provided insights which are of direct importance for the assessment of the time-dependent seismic hazard.
This session focuses on both emerging systematic methods which can improve our
state of understanding of the physical processes responsible for the distribution of earthquakes in space and time, and new models, technologies, and tools which quantify both the seismotectonic process and its evolution. Particular emphasis will be placed on
(i) triggering mechanism (stress transfer, fluids, ...);
(ii) physical and statistical models of earthquake occurrence;
(iii) time-dependence of earthquake statistics;
(iv) quantitative testing of hypothetical models; and
(v) implications for time-dependent hazard assessment and probabilistic earthquake forecasts.