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Orals CL3.2/NH1.12/NP5.3

CL3.2/NH1.12/NP5.3

Decadal, seasonal and monthly climate predictions (co-organized)
Convener: Stéphane Vannitsem  | Co-Conveners: Geert Jan van Oldenborgh , Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes , Mark A. Liniger , Seth Westra , Bart van den Hurk 
Orals
 / Wed, 10 Apr, 08:30–12:00  / 13:30–15:00  / Room Y9
Posters
 / Attendance Wed, 10 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Yellow Posters

Wednesday, 10 April 2013
Room Y9
Chairperson: Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
08:30–08:45
EGU2013-3841
Regional decadal prediction for Europe: First results
Hendrik Feldmann, Sebastian Mieruch, Claus-Jürgen Lenz, Kevin Sieck, and Christoph Kottmeier
08:45–09:00
EGU2013-5946
The Canadian coupled multi-seasonal forecasting system
Juan Sebatian Fontecilla
09:00–09:15
EGU2013-807
Impact of horizontal atmospheric resolution on decadal predictability processes using the IPSL-CM5A model
Sulagna Ray, Juliette Mignot, Didier Swingedow, and Eric Guilyardi
09:15–09:30
EGU2013-1270
Developing a new Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA-3.0)
Xiaobing Zhou, Oscar Alves, Patricia Okely, Faina Tseitkin, Andrew Marshall, Jing-Jia Luo, Debra Hudson, Maggie Zhao, Yonghong Yin, and Harry Hendon
09:30–09:45
EGU2013-8392
Improved predictions of global climate in the decade ahead using a new version of the Met Office Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System
Jeff Knight, Martin Andrews, Doug Smith, Alberto Arribas, Nick Dunstone, Craig Maclachlan, Drew Peterson, Adam Scaife, and Andrew Williams
09:45–10:00
EGU2013-3813
Aerosols impact on the multi-decadal SST variability simulation over the North Pacific
Kyung-On Boo, Ben Booth, Young-Hwa Byun, ChunHo Cho, Johan Lee, Soo-Hyun Park, Sung-Bo Shim, and Sung-Bin Park
COFFEE BREAK
10:30–10:45
EGU2013-6632
An Empirical Benchmark for Decadal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature Anomalies
Matthew Newman
10:45–11:00
EGU2013-1452
How stationary is the Siberian snow - Arctic Oscillation relationship over the 20th century ?
Yannick Peings, Hervé Douville, and Eric Brun
11:00–11:15
EGU2013-10370
What is really a drift in a coupled climate model used for climate forecasts ?
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Christophe Cassou, and Elodie Fernandez
11:15–11:30
EGU2013-5234
Development of SST errors in the southern tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
Thomas Toniazzo and Steven Woolnough
11:30–11:45
EGU2013-5968
Assessing the skill of seasonal rainfall outlooks for the Caribbean
Shanice Bedward and Cedric Van Meerbeeck
11:45–12:00
EGU2013-12029 | presentation | presentation
Variation in the reliability of ensemble predictions of SSTs from seasonal to decadal timescales
Chun Kit Ho, Ed Hawkins, Len Shaffrey, Jochen Broecker, Doug Smith, Leon Hermanson, and James Murphy
LUNCH BREAK
13:30–13:45
EGU2013-10007
Assessing the decadal predictability of Arctic sea ice in CNRM-CM5.1 : A regional study
Agathe Germe, David Salas y Melia, Matthieu Chevallier, and Stephane Sénési
13:45–14:00
EGU2013-12013
Improving the anomaly initialisation for decadal predictions
Mihaela Caian, Klaus Wyser, Louis-Philipe Caron, and Colin Jones
14:00–14:15
EGU2013-1354
Experience from practice: compound storm surge and high precipitation in a coastal area in the Netherlands
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Bart van den Hurk, Klaas Jan van Heeringen, and Jan Gooijer
14:15–14:30
EGU2013-5526
Compound Extremes and Bunched Black (or Grouped Grey) Swans.
Nicholas Watkins
14:30–14:45
EGU2013-7480
Quantifying and understanding the collective risk of mid-latitude storms
Alasdair Hunter, David Stephenson, Theodoros Economou, Ian Cook, and Angelika Werner
14:45–15:00
EGU2013-10711
The simultaneous occurrence of surge and discharge extremes for the Rhine delta
Frank Selten, Sarah Kew, Geert Lenderink, and Wilco Hazeleger