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Orals NP5.2

NP5.2

Initial error dynamics and model error physics in predictability studies of weather and climate
Co-Conveners: Stéphane Vannitsem , Wansuo Duan 
Orals
 / Thu, 01 May, 10:30–12:00  / Room B3
Posters
 / Attendance Thu, 01 May, 17:30–19:00  / Blue Posters

Thursday, 01 May 2014
Room B3
Chairperson: Mu Mu, Stéphane Vannitsem, Wansuo Duan
10:30–10:45
EGU2014-13882
Sensitivity and predictability for weather and climate (solicited)
Michael Ghil
10:45–11:00
EGU2014-1490
Optimal precursor and optimally growing initial error in the predictability studies of Kuroshio large meander and their nonlinear evolution mechanism
Mu Mu, Qiang Wang, and Henk A. Dijkstra
11:00–11:15
EGU2014-1762
Avoiding the ensemble decorrelation problem using member-by-member post-processing
Bert Van Schaeybroeck and Stéphane Vannitsem
11:15–11:30
EGU2014-1706
Nonlinear forcing singular vector -type tendency errors of the Zebiak-Cane model and its effect on ENSO predictability
Wansuo Duan and Peng Zhao
11:30–11:45
EGU2014-4816
Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models
Alef Sterk, Mark Holland, Pau Rabassa, Henk Broer, and Renato Vitolo
11:45–12:00
EGU2014-16379
The Application of Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Vectors to Ensemble Prediction in a barotropic quasi-geostrophicmodel
Ruiqiang Ding, Jie Feng, Deqiang Liu, and Jianping Li