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CL4.4/NH1.3/NP3.11

Decadal, seasonal and monthly climate predictions (co-organized)
Convener: Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  | Co-Conveners: Mark A. Liniger , Stéphane Vannitsem 
Orals
 / Fri, 02 May, 08:30–12:00  / Room Y6
Posters
 / Attendance Fri, 02 May, 13:30–15:00  / Yellow Posters
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Forecasts of climate variability at the decadal, seasonal, and monthly time scales will be discussed in this session. This will include presentations and discussions of predictions for a time horizon of up to ten years from dynamical ensemble forecast systems and statistical models. Further topics include
* forecast quality assessment
* physical mechanisms for skill and predictability
* analysis of predictability, downscaling and calibration for long time scales in simple dynamical systems (as proof-of-concepts)
* advanced analysis techniques to clarify the long term climate predictability (such as information theory, bayesian approaches, networks, weather regime dynamics
* role of anthropogenic climate change
* implementation of seamless forecasting systems
* ensemble forecast generation and initialization
* approaches to address model uncertainty
* downscaling and calibration
* demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate change adaptation using the recently developed climate services framework
A special focus will be put on results from the CMIP5 decadal prediction experiments and projects (e.g. NACLIM, SPECS and EUPORIAS).