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Orals AS1.1

AS1.1

Numerical weather prediction, data assimilation and ensemble forecasting
Convener: Haraldur Ólafsson  | Co-Convener: Jian-Wen Bao 
Orals
 / Tue, 25 Apr, 08:30–12:00  / 13:30–17:00  / Room E2
Posters
 / Attendance Tue, 25 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Hall X5

Tuesday, 25 Apr 2017
Room E2
Chairperson: Jian-Wen Bao
08:30–08:45
EGU2017-16974
The NWP system at Météo-France and the low cloud forecast: still a challenge ? (solicited)
Eric Bazile
08:45–09:00
EGU2017-11399
NWP prediction at ESRL/GSD: Latest developments and applications for physics parameterizations (solicited)
Georg Grell, Joseph Olson, Stan Benjamin, Tanya Smirnova, Jaymes Kenyon, Eric James, Li Zhang, Ravan Ahmadov, and John Brown
09:00–09:15
EGU2017-3091
Medium-range forecasts with a non-hydrostatic global atmospheric model on a cubed sphere grid (solicited)
Song-You Hong, Young-Cheol Kwon, Kyung-Hee Seol, Suk-Jin Choi, In-Hyeok Kwon, Tae-Hoon Kim, Eun-Hee Lee, Rae-Seol Park, and Dong-Il Kim
09:15–09:30
EGU2017-3955
Developing a high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalysis for Australia
Christopher White, Paul Fox-Hughes, Chun-Hsu Su, Dörte Jakob, Greg Kociuba, Nathan Eisenberg, Peter Steinle, Rebecca Harris, Stuart Corney, Peter Love, Tomas Remenyi, Mark Chladil, John Bally, and Nathan Bindoff
09:30–09:45
EGU2017-15066
Can limited area NWP and/or RCM models improve on large scales inside their domain?
Fedor Mesinger and Katarina Veljovic
09:45–10:00
EGU2017-19274
Does the Representation of Flow Structure and Turbulence at a Cold Front Converge on Multi-scale Observations with Model Resolution?
Ben Harvey, John John Methven, Chloe Eagle, and Humphrey Lean
Coffee break
10:30–10:45
EGU2017-3740
Stochastic parameterization testing with NOAA’s developmental Global Ensemble Forecast System (solicited)
Thomas M. Hamill
10:45–11:00
EGU2017-11896 | presentation | presentation
Predictability of 2-m temperature across space and time scales
Thomas Haiden and Zied Ben Bouallegue
11:00–11:15
EGU2017-5633
Orographic drag uncertainties impact forecast skill
Irina Sandu, Ayrton Zadra, Nils Wedi, and Julio Bacmeister
11:15–11:30
EGU2017-8222
Uncertainties and coupled error covariances in the CERA-20C, ECMWF's first coupled reanalysis ensemble
Xiangbo Feng and Keith Haines
11:30–11:45
EGU2017-11668
For how long can we predict the weather? – Insights into atmospheric predictability from global convection-allowing simulations
Falko Judt
11:45–12:00
EGU2017-18038
Predictability and Model Uncertainty of MJO Convective Initiation and Propagation in ECMWF Stochastic Ensemble Forecasts
Shuyi Chen, Brandon Kerns, Hannah Christensen, and Mahsa Mirzargar
Lunch break
13:30–13:45
EGU2017-4168
Shallow marine cloud topped boundary layer in atmospheric models
Zavisa Janjic
13:45–14:00
EGU2017-17891
WOD - Weather On Demand forecasting system
Olafur Rognvaldsson, Logi Ragnarsson, and Karolina Stanislawska
14:00–14:15
"Scale-dependent estimates of the growth of forecast uncertainties in a global prediction system" by Nedjeljka Žagar

14:15–14:30
EGU2017-11092
Predicting weak winds
Haraldur Ólafsson
14:30–14:45
EGU2017-3395
“Big Data Assimilation” for 30-second-update 100-m-mesh Numerical Weather Prediction
Takemasa Miyoshi, Guo-Yuan Lien, Masaru Kunii, Juan Ruiz, Yasumitsu Maejima, Shigenori Otsuka, Keiichi Kondo, Hiromu Seko, Shinsuke Satoh, Tomoo Ushio, Kotaro Bessho, Kazumi Kamide, Hirofumi Tomita, Seiya Nishizawa, Tsuyoshi Yamaura, and Yutaka Ishikawa
14:45–15:00
EGU2017-6776
The development of global GRAPES 4DVAR
yongzhu liu
Coffee break
15:30–15:45
EGU2017-10487
Impact of GPS-Integrated Water Vapour assimilation on Regional Climate Model simulations of heavy precipitation events in the western Mediterranean
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez and Samiro Khodayar
15:45–16:00
EGU2017-1310
Preliminary validation of WRF model in two Arctic fjords, Hornsund and Porsanger
Paulina Aniskiewicz and Małgorzata Stramska
16:00–16:15
EGU2017-14697
Verification and spread/skill evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble in dependence of the perturbation strategy.
Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani, and Tiziana Paccagnella
16:15–16:30 EGU2017-18541
Scale-dependent verification of TIGGE forecasts (withdrawn)
Suvarchal Kumar Cheedela and Brian Mapes
16:30–16:45
EGU2017-18741
Observation impact in short-range ensemble forecasts
Tobias Necker, Martin Weissmann, and Matthias Sommer
16:45–17:00
EGU2017-11596
Estimation and correction of different flavors of surface observation biases in ensemble Kalman filter
Raquel Lorente-Plazas, Josua P. Hacker, Nancy Collins, and Jared A. Lee