NP5.3/AS1.2/HS4.8 Advances in statistical post-processing for deterministic and ensemble forecasts (co-organized)

Convener: Stéphane Vannitsem  | Co-Conveners: Jakob W. Messner , Daniel S. Wilks

Orals  / Thu, 27 Apr, 08:30–10:00  / Room M2 Posters  / Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Hall X4

Statistical post-processing techniques for weather, climate, and hydrological forecasts are powerful approaches to compensate for effects of errors in model structure or initial conditions, and to calibrate inaccurately dispersed ensembles. These techniques are now an integral part of many forecasting suites and are used in many end-user applications such as wind energy production or flood warning systems.

Many of these techniques are now flourishing in the statistical, meteorological, climatological, hydrological, and engineering communities. The methods range in complexity from simple bias correction up to very sophisticated distribution-adjusting techniques that take into account correlations among the prognostic variables.

In this session, we invite papers dealing with both theoretical developments in statistical post-processing and evaluation of their performances in different practical applications oriented toward environmental predictions.