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Orals NP2.1/AS1.25/CL2.10/OS1.13

NP2.1/AS1.25/CL2.10/OS1.13

ENSO: Dynamics, Predictability and Modelling (co-organized)
Convener: Dietmar Dommenget  | Co-Conveners: Michael McPhaden , Andrew Wittenberg , Eric Guilyardi 
Orals
 / Tue, 10 Apr, 08:30–12:00  / Room L2
Posters
 / Attendance Tue, 10 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Hall X4

Tuesday, 10 April 2018
Room L2
08:30–08:45
EGU2018-1564
Understanding the warm water volume precursor of ENSO events and its interdecadal variation (solicited)
Sonja Neske and Shayne McGregor
08:45–09:00
EGU2018-1983
Thermocline feedback associated with the increasing occurrence of Central Pacific ENSO assessed using a linear, multi-mode model
Xiaoting Zhu, Richard Greatbatch, and Martin Claus
09:00–09:15
EGU2018-8559
Unprecedented 2015/16 Indo-Pacific heat transfer speeds up Tropical Pacific heat recharge
Michael Mayer, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, and Leopold Haimberger
09:15–09:30
EGU2018-6411 | presentation | presentation
On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Niño Southern Oscillation
Takeshi Izumo, Matthieu Lengaigne, Jerome Vialard, Iyyappan Suresh, and Yann Planton
09:30–09:45
EGU2018-13179 | presentation | presentation
The warm water volume, a better predictor of La Niña than of El Niño amplitude
Yann Planton, Éric Guilyardi, Matthieu Lengaigne, and Jérôme Vialard
09:45–10:00
EGU2018-11560
Predicting El Nino Beyond 1-year Lead: Effect of Western Hemisphere Warm Pool
Jong-Seong Kug, Jae-Heung Park, Tim Li, Swadhin Behera, and Jee-Hoon Jeong
Coffee break
10:30–10:45
EGU2018-14306
Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015 with Met Office GloSea5 and ECMWF System4
Sarah Ineson, Magdalena Balmaseda, Mike Davey, Damien Decremer, Nick Dunstone, Margaret Gordon, Hongli Ren, Adam Scaife, and Antje Weisheimer
10:45–11:00
EGU2018-9104
ENSO change in climate projections: forced response or internal variability?
Nicola Maher, Daniela Matei, Sebastian Milinski, Thibault Tabarin, and Jochem Marotzke
11:00–11:15
EGU2018-6627
ENSO's different flavors and global patterns of seasonal climate anomalies
Catrin Kirsch, Anna Lensch, and Reik Donner
11:15–11:30
EGU2018-11618
Understanding regional teleconnections from strong El Niño events: a case study of east Australian springtime rainfall
Peter van Rensch, Julie Arblaster, Ailie Gallant, Wenju Cai, Neville Nicholls, and Paul Durack
11:30–11:45
EGU2018-1273
Changes in structure and radiative impact of mesoscale convective systems with ENSO phase
Sylvia Sullivan and Pierre Gentine
11:45–12:00
EGU2018-3275
Mean-State Dependence of ENSO atmospheric feedbacks and ENSO dynamics in climate models (solicited)
Tobias Bayr, Mojib Latif, Dietmar Dommenget, Christian Wengel, Joke Lübbecke, Jan Harlaß, and Wonsun Park