AS1.6Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction: meteorology and impacts
|Convener: Francesca Di Giuseppe | Co-Conveners: Adrian Tompkins , Angel Munoz , Daniela Domeisen , Peter Hitchcock , Andrew Charlton-Perez , Fredrik Wetterhall|
The WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)–World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project has the goal of improving forecast skill of the 2 week to 2 month lead time range and now provides research communities with unprecedented access to a comprehensive database of forecasts and hindcasts from a large number of forecasting centres from across the globe.
This session invites contributions that span all aspects of S2S meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic prediction, including impacts studies that may or may not make use of the S2S databases.
Specifically we welcome contributions that focus on phenomena such as
- The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
- Tropical/extra-Tropical waves
- Stratospheric variability and stratosphere -troposphere coupling
- Predictability and skill of atmospheric or surface variables
- Transition of weather regimes
- Case studies of extreme weather events on the S2S scale
Contributions regarding impacts studies at the S2S time-range are also highly welcome, including the areas of water management (e.g floods, drought), health (vector-borne diseases, heat waves, air quality) and security (fires), agriculture and energy. These can include modelling studies of the impacts through to presentations of how S2S-derived information can be integrated into decision support systems at the local, regional and country level.
***************** UPDATE ******************************
We are pleased to announce the participation to our session of two solicited speakers
Dr Chris White will talk about applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions
Dr Francisco Doblas-Reyes will talk about Subseasonal forecasts from a climate services perspective