Prediction of Solar Flares and Eruptions: Observations, Theory and Modeling
Convener: Ishii Mamoru | Co-conveners: Manolis Georgoulis, Margit Haberreiter, Leka KD, Naoto Nishizuka
| Tue, 09 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Room 2.44
| Attendance Wed, 10 Apr, 10:45–12:30
Hall X4

The session is intended as a discussion forum for reviewing and improving our current understanding of solar flare occurrence mechanisms and the prediction of flares and eruptions in both observational and modeling settings. In particular, this session will discuss, first, the apparent paradigm shift from simple flare and eruption prediction methods to interdisciplinary, multi-parameter investigations enabled by artificial intelligence (AI) and, second, the current and future synergies between academic and operational sectors in the framework of research to operations (R2O). Solar eruptions cause space weather phenomena that can affect space environment and sometimes impact our infrastructure, causing disruptions to our societal fabric. Prediction of solar flares and eruptions is essential to increase the lead time and the accuracy of space weather forecasts. Synergies are crucial for establishing operational prediction models and for effectively evaluating and validating these models. Such collaborative approaches are motivated by observational advances enabled by space missions (SDO, STEREO, SOHO, Hinode, RHESSI, GOES, Parker Solar Probe, and Solar Orbiter in the near future, etc.), empirical human forecasting for decades, statistical methods, advances in machine- and deep-learning techniques, big-data handling, as well as realistic, data-driven numerical simulations. We solicit contributions on solar flare and eruption prediction, including operational human forecasting, statistical models, AI investigations and state-of-the-art forecast models enabled by numerical simulations, aiming toward future operations. Abstracts on data and performance verification, validation and benchmarking are also welcome.
Moreover, the long-term effect of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) of the UV and longer wavelength on the Earth climate system have been studied in detail, however the effect of particle precipitation on the Earth's atmosphere and climate has only recently received increasing attention. To cover these aspects, abstracts are welcome that discuss the impact of space weather events on the terrestrial atmosphere for different time scales.