Side Events
Disciplinary Sessions
Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sessions

Session programme


NP – Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences

Programme group chairs: François G. Schmitt, Stéphane Vannitsem, Olivier Talagrand, Reik Donner, Stefano Pierini, Valerio Lucarini, Philippe Fraunie, Julien Touboul

NP2 – Dynamical Systems Approaches to Problems in Geosciences


Papers are solicited related to the understanding and prediction of weather, climate and geophysical extremes, from both an applied sciences and theoretical viewpoint.

In this session we propose to group together the traditional geophysical sciences and more mathematical/statistical approaches to the study of extremes. We aim to highlight the complementary nature of these two viewpoints, with the aim of gaining a deeper understanding of extreme events.

Potential topics of interest include but are not limited to the following:

· How extremes have varied or are likely to vary under climate change;
· How well climate models capture extreme events;
· Attribution of extreme events;
· Emergent constraints on extremes;
· Linking dynamical systems extremes to geophysical extremes;
· Geophysical flows as a dynamical system: classification of large-scale flows and metastable states;
· Advances in diagnosing local and mean properties of the climate system as a dynamical system (e.g. maximum entropy production principles);
· Extremes in dynamical systems;
· Dynamical systems metrics as indicators of climate change;
· Dynamical downscaling of weather and climate extremes.

Confirmed Invited Speakers are:
-David Barriopedro (Complutense University of Madrid, Spain)
-Pascale Braconnot (IPSL, France)
-Nikki Vercauteren (Freie Universitaet Berlin, Germany)

Co-organized as AS1.14/CL2.07
Convener: Davide Faranda | Co-conveners: Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Gabriele Messori
| Thu, 11 Apr, 10:45–12:30
Room M1
| Attendance Thu, 11 Apr, 16:15–18:00
Hall X4

Recent years have seen a substantial progress in the understanding of the nonlinear and stochastic processes responsible for important dynamical aspects of the complex Earth system. The Earth system is a complex system with a multitude of spatial and temporal scales which interact nonlinearly with each other. For understanding this complex system new methods from dynamical systems, complex systems theory, complex network theory, statistics and climate and Earth sciences are needed.

In this context the session is open to contributions on all aspects of the nonlinear and stochastic dynamics of the Earth system, including the atmosphere, the ocean and the climate system. Communications based on theoretical and modeling studies, as well as on experimental investigations are welcome. Studies that span the range of model hierarchy from idealized models to complex Earth System Models (ESM), data driven models, use observational data and also theoretical studies are particularly encouraged.

Invited speaker: Cecile Penland (NOAA)

Co-organized as AS1.10/CL4.15/NH11.9/OS1.16
Convener: Christian Franzke | Co-conveners: Balasubramanya Nadiga, Paul Williams, Naiming Yuan
| Fri, 12 Apr, 10:45–12:30, 14:00–15:45
Room M1
| Attendance Fri, 12 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Hall X4

ENSO is the dominant source of interannual climate variability in the tropics and across the globe. Understanding ENSO's dynamics, predicting El Niño and La Niña, and anticipating changes in ENSO's characteristics and impacts are thus of vital importance for society. This session invites contributions regarding the dynamics of ENSO, including multi-scale interactions; low frequency, decadal and paleo ENSO variability; ENSO theory; ENSO diversity; ENSO impacts on climate, society and ecosystems; ENSO teleconnections; seasonal forecasting of ENSO; and climate change projections of ENSO. Studies aimed at understanding ENSO in models of a range of complexity are especially welcomed, including analysis of CMIP model intercomparisons.

Co-organized as AS1.35/NP2.4/OS1.24
Convener: Dietmar Dommenget | Co-conveners: Antonietta Capotondi, Daniela Domeisen, Eric Guilyardi
| Tue, 09 Apr, 10:45–12:30
Room F2
| Attendance Tue, 09 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Hall X5

Hydrology is a rich multidisciplinary field encompassing a complex process network involving interactions of diverse nature and scales. Still, it abides to core dynamical principles regulating individual and cooperative processes and interactions, ultimately relating to the overall Earth System dynamics. This session focuses on advances in theoretical and applied studies in hydrologic dynamics, regimes, transitions and extremes along with their physical understanding, predictability and uncertainty. Moreover, it welcomes research on dynamical co-evolution, feedbacks and synergies among hydrologic and other earth system processes at multiple spatiotemporal scales. The session further encourages discussion on physical and analytical approaches to hydrologic dynamics ranging from traditional stochastic, information-theoretical and dynamical analysis to general frameworks addressing non-ergodic and thermodynamically unstable processes and interactions.
Contributions are welcome from a diverse community in hydrology and the broader physical geosciences, working with diverse approaches ranging from dynamical modelling to data mining and analysis with physical understanding in mind.

Co-organized as NP2.6
Convener: Rui A. P. Perdigão | Co-conveners: Julia Hall, Shaun Harrigan, Maria Kireeva
| Attendance Wed, 10 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Hall A