Stochastic comparison of climate model outputs to observed temperature fields

We compare the stochastic behaviour of temperature outputs of climate models for the 20th century
to the historical data (stations and reanalysis fields) at several temporal and spatial scales. In
particular we examine the marginal distributions and the dependence structure with emphasis on
the Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour. The comparison aims to contribute to the quantification of
reliability and predictive uncertainty of temperature climate model outputs over different scales in a
framework of assessing their relevance for engineering planning and design.

(Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the course "Stochastic Methods"
of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA
provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.)