Stochastic Spatiotemporal Patterns of Metapopulation Occupancy in Dynamic Wetlandscapes

Dynamic internal feedbacks and stochastic external shocks drive the spatial organization and heterogeneity of patchy habitats, and thus the temporal variability of patch suitability and accessibility. Such spatiotemporal shifts impact species dispersal among patches and metapopulation persistence. Here, we extended the widely recognized concepts of patch-occupancy and metapopulation capacity from static to dynamic patchy habitats, with isolated wetlands embedded in uplands as the case study. We present a new metapopulation modeling approach by linking a hydrological model for wetland variability with a dynamic stochastic patch-occupancy model. In two case study wetlandscapes, we evaluate (1) spatiotemporal dynamics of wetland hydrologic regimes, and patch suitability and connectivity driven by stochastic hydroclimatic forcing, and (2) spatiotemporal patterns of patch occupancy and metapopulation dispersal dynamics. Our modeling results reveal the importance of specific connected patches that serve as persistent hubs and form the backbone of dispersal corridors to support species dispersal in fragmented dynamic landscapes. Our analyses reveal that the interplay between stochastic hydroclimatic forcing and patchy habitat structure could drive species to extinction when specific thresholds are crossed.