Drivers of oceanic exchange through the Indonesian Throughflow since the late 1800s – a synthesis of coral δ18O and high-resolution ocean models

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) serves as an important oceanic teleconnection for Indo-Pacific climate, altering heat and buoyancy transport from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. Equatorial Pacific wind forcing transmitted through the ITF impacts interannual to interdecadal Indian Ocean thermocline depth and heat content, with implications for preconditioning Indian Ocean Dipole events. Yet the modulation of Indian Ocean thermal properties at seasonal timescales is still poorly understood. Here we synthesize coral δ¹⁸O records, instrumental indices (El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Asian Monsoon), and simulated ocean variability (sea surface salinity (SSS) and temperature (SST), heat content, mixed layer depth) from state-of-the-art NEMO ocean model hindcasts to explore drivers of seasonal to multi-decadal variability. All coral sites are located within main ITF pathways and are influenced by monsoon-driven, buoyant South China Sea (SCS) surface waters during boreal winter that obstruct surface ITF flow and reduce heat transport to the Indian Ocean. Makassar and Lombok Strait coral δ¹⁸O co-varies with simulated SSS, subsurface heat content anomalies (50-350m) and mixed layer depth at the coral sites and in the eastern Indian Ocean. At decadal timescales, simulated boreal winter ocean variability at the coral sites additionally indicates a potential intensification of the SCS buoyancy plug from the mid- to late-20^th century. Notably, the variability in these coral and model responses reveals sensitivity to phase changes in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the East Asian Winter Monsoon. These results collectively suggest that the paleoproxy records are capturing important features of regional hydrography and Indo-Pacific exchange, including responses to regional monsoon variability. Such proxy-model comparison is critical for understanding the drivers of variability related to changes in ITF oceanic teleconnections over the 19^th and 20^th centuries.