Observational analysis of Mediterranean decadal hydroclimate variability: role of Atlantic-Mediterranean sea surface temperatures

The Mediterranean region is a semi-arid climate zone, subject to droughts, where water resources are scarce and observational data and climate models suggest a tendency towards greater aridification. Moreover, the Mediterranean region is an area of social and political instability and, in the Middle East, open warfare, which might be further stressed by climate change. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic sector, playing the leading role in driving Mediterranean hydroclimate variability from seasonal to multidecadal timescales, whereas the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remains unclear. Nevertheless, the mechanism underlying the NAO is still under debate, and the possibility for coupled ocean-atmosphere decadal interactions, for which several mechanisms have been proposed, would support the role of SST. Based on observations and reanalysis, we conduct a statistical-observational analysis to explore the decadal drivers of Mediterranean hydroclimate variability for the winter half-year (October-to-March) wet season. Our results put forward the uneven intraseasonal influence of the decadal NAO, being the leading driver during the winter peak season (December-to-March), while decadal Atlantic-Mediterranean SST variability exhibit a consistent link for the first months of the wet season (October-to-January). These results emphasize the need to further explore the ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanisms and their possible modulations under climate change. Understanding these mechanisms is essential to improve predictability of hydroclimate in the Mediterranean region, leading to adaptation strategies that mitigate the effect of climate change on the vulnerable population.