Ensemble Streamflow Assimilation with Coupled WRF-Hydro and DART

The Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) has been coupled with the community WRF-Hydro modeling system with the intent of providing efficient and flexible support for assimilating a wide range of streamflow and soil moisture observations and delivering an ensemble of model states useful for quantifying streamflow uncertainties. The coupled framework, named Hydro-DART, is used to study and assess the flooding consequences of Hurricane Florence over the Carolinas during August-September 2018 period.
Several extensions to earlier versions of Hydro-DART have been explored. These include: (1) a multi-configuration ensemble in which different ensemble members are run with different physical parameters (e.g., Manning's roughness and channel geometry) in order to create additional ensemble variability, (2) a variable transform, anamorphosis, which is introduced such that bounded quantities (e.g., streamflow) are transformed to a Gaussian space prior to the Kalman update as a way to avoid non-physical state updates, (3) a spatially-correlated noise, which is introduced to represent uncertainty of input forcings (e.g., overland and subsurface fluxes) in a physically meaningful way, and (4) an along-the-stream localization, which considers precipitation correlation length scale, rather than physical proximity. Hourly streamflow gauge data, from the flood-affected area, is used to test the impact of these extensions on the overall prediction accuracy. Analyses and hindcasts are compared to those based on the nudging assimilation currently employed in the National Water  Model (NWM) operations. Standard streamflow forecast metrics are also supplemented by a wavelet-based event timing error metric.