Mass movement tendencies and interaction with climate change in the Northern Chilean Patagonia

Mass movement processes correspond to one of the most dangerous geological events, mainly where human settlements are present, due to their destructive power and unpredictable nature. Chilean Patagonia has experienced important mass removal events in recent years. In this work, we are seeking to detect trends in the occurrence of these events and the relationship with long-term and short-term dispositions driven mainly by hydrometeorological events and the geology of the study area.

In the Chilean Patagonia, the Chilean Geological Survey (Sernageomin) has detected more than 713 landslides events in the Chilean Northern Patagonia (~42.7ºS, ~72.4ºW)” alone, a small area compared to the Chilean Patagonia. However, there is a lack of understanding of the triggers and mechanisms that control such events, and further studies need to be carried in order to understand the evolution of these events, linkages to climate change or anthropogenic changes, and to understand where they potentially can affect village directly destroying houses and taking human lives.

In this study, we use remote sensing to detect mass removals, fieldwork data collection to understand the geological predisposition to enable mass removal, and the analysis of hydrometeorological information to statistically establish relationships between the events and the potential triggers. For the remote sensing, we use Google Engine to create an exhaustive dataset of mass removal of 35 years in the study area. We apply the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Grain Size Index (GSI) in Landsat Imagery. We will use the Sernageomin dataset and fieldwork to validate the methodology. For the geology, we analyze the conditioning factors associated with the geomorphological, structural, and lithological characteristics of the area. Finally, we used ERA5 data to determine the relationship between climate and mass removal events, analyzing, for example, the total annual precipitation patterns (TP) and extreme indicators as the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) as well as annual temperatures and heatwaves.

The results of this research sought to provide the foundations for a complete risk assessment in the Chilean Patagonia and to increase awareness and preparedness in the region.