Modeling of greenhouse gas emissions from fires in the Brazilian Cerrado

Vegetation fires have a large impact on greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil. In the Brazilian Cerrado, fires occur as part of the natural dynamics of the leading savanna landscapes, but can have their frequency and extent greatly increased by changes in land cover and use, and climate. In addition to atmospheric composition, fires are also linked to deforestation and land degradation, so modeling tools to estimate their occurrence and effects are of significant interest in analyses of climate forcing and sustainable management of the study region.  In order to contribute to modeling tools that may support quantifying the impacts of vegetation fires and help sustainable management of the Cerrado in Brazil, we are working on improving the Integrated Model of Land-surface Processes (INLAND) to estimate fire emissions based on the model’s calculation of vegetation properties and burned area.  Based on data from remote sensing, we are calibrating INLAND burned area outputs, which in combination to modeled vegetation biomass will provide the basis for the emissions estimates, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for greenhouse gas inventories. Our current estimates present correct timing and spatial patterns at regional scales, which we plan to improve to match information from other studies and databases.