Drying Tendency over the Southern Tibetan Plateau in Recent Past Decades

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts a significant impact on the weather and climate over many places of the world through both mechanical and thermal-dynamical effects. In summer, the major rainfall of the TP occurs over the southern slope, and the associated atmospheric latent heating dominates the total diabatic heating of TP. Then the variation of summer rainfall can directly regulate the TP’s thermal effects. On the other hand, the rainfall center over the southern slope is corresponding with the northern branch of South Asian summer monsoon, which is important to the agricultural productivity and economic stability along the Ganges River with dense population. This study shows that there existed a drying tendency over the southern TP (STP) in the rainy season of recent decades. A moisture budget analysis indicates that the dynamic change in vertical moisture advection is the dominant contributor to the drying trend, which is associated with the weakened upward motion over the STP. The changes in dynamic process over STP are induced by the northward shift of the subtropical westerly jet, whose northward shift reduces the upper-level anticyclone over STP and weakens the upper-level divergence, leading to a trend of vertical sinking motion. Furthermore, the northward shift of the jet is mainly attributed to the internal variability of the atmosphere, characterized by an upper-level circum-global wave train. The influence of atmospheric internal variability is demonstrated by the CESM Large Ensemble Project data.