The variational echo tracking method and its application in convective storm nowcasting

The objective extrapolation forecast is the main method for 0-1 hour convective storm nowcasting. Radar echo extrapolation was performed by using the 6 minute interval radar mosaics obtained from the radar images of 8 multi-radars in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. A comparative study of two extrapolated forecasts of eighteen typical convective precipitation events occurred in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2016 to 2018 was conducted. Compared with the tracking radar echoes by correlation method, the variational echo tracking method utilizes variational technique to compute the motion vector fields, and uses two strict constraints to get a better motion vector field. The results indicated that the variational echo tracking method performed better in prediction of the radar echo pattern, echo location, and echo intensity at 30- and 60-min forecast lead times: 1) A comparative study of the two extrapolated forecasts of four precipitation events in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was conducted. The result indicated that the radar echo location, the echo pattern and echo intensity produced by the variational echo tracking method were closer to the real observation within one hour. 2) Quantitative evaluation for the two extrapolated forecasts of the eighteen typical convective precipitation events was conducted. Compared with the tracking radar echoes by correlation method, the probability of detection and the critical success index of the 30- or 60-min extrapolated forecast produced by the variational echo tracking method were higher, meanwhile the false alarm rate was lower when the radar echo threshold was 35dBz and 45dBz. Also, a quantitative evaluation classified by the weather type indicated that the variational echo tracking method performed better than the tracking radar echoes by correlation method in most weather types.