Frequentist and Bayesian extreme value analysis on the wildfire events in Greece

A statistical analysis on the wildfire events, that have taken place in Greece during the period 1985-2007, for the assessment of the extremes has been performed. The total burned area of each fire was considered here as a key variable to express the significance of a given event. The data have been analyzed through the extreme value theory, which has been in general proved a powerful tool for the accurate assessment of the return period of extreme events. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches have been used for comparison and evaluation purposes. Precisely, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution along with Peaks over Threshold (POT) have been compared with the Bayesian Extreme Value modelling. Furthermore, the correlation of the burned area with the potential extreme values for other key parameters (e.g. wind, temperature, humidity, etc.) has been also investigated.