Impact of Climate Change on the Agulhas Bank, South Africa ― a 100 year projection with consequences for the squid fishery

The South and East coast of South Africa is strongly influenced by the warm, fast-flowing Agulhas Current. The Agulhas Bank, a shallow shelf on the southern tip of Southern Africa, is a crucial area for productivity which support fisheries of high economic importance for South Africa.  In this context of climate change, perturbations of this diverse, complex and highly variable marine environment could affect the productivity and lead to dramatic social and economic consequences for the region. To predict potential changes over the eastern and central Bank, we employ a high-resolution global coupled ocean-biogeochemistry model, NEMO-MEDUSA, simulated to year 2099. We find that even though the Agulhas Bank is warming over the next century, primary production does not experience a significant decrease. Additionally, we show that the Agulhas Current might shift its position, with intensification surface current velocity on the Bank hence reducing water retention over the Bank. This change in local circulation over the Bank could have a serious impact on the ecosystem of the region.