Evolution of low flows regulation and terrestrial water storage in the Magdalena river basin: Implications for the assessment and monitoring of potential water scarcity in river basins

Many natural and social phenomena depend on the regulation of river flow regimes. Regulation is defined here as the capacity of river basins to attenuate extreme flows, which includes the capacity to enhance low flows during dry periods of time. This capacity depends on how basins store and release water through time, which in turn depends on manifold processes that can be highly dynamic and sensitive to global change. Here we focus on the Magdalena river basin in northwestern South America, which is critical for water and energy security in Colombia, and has experienced water scarcity problems in the past, including the collapse of the national hydropower system due to El Niño 1991-1992. In this basin we study the evolution of regulation and related processes from two perspectives. First, we present a widely applicable conceptual framework that is based on the scaling theory and allows assessing the evolution of regulation in river basins, and use this framework to show how the Magdalena basin’s regulation capacity has been changing in recent decades. Second, we use data from the GRACE mission to investigate variations in water storage in the basin, and identify recent decreasing trends in both terrestrial water storage and groundwater storage. Further we show that temporal and spatial patterns of water storage depletion are likely related to the occurrence of ENSO extremes and pronounced differences between the lower and higher parts of the basin, including the presence of major wetland systems in the low lands and Andean mountains in the high lands. Our results provide insights on how to assess and monitor regulation in river basins, as well as on how this regulation relates to the dynamics of low flows and water storage, and therefore to potential water scarcity problems.