Multiple hazards under future UK Climate Projections

When two or more extreme weather events occur either simultaneously or in close succession, there may be more severe societal and economic impacts than when extreme hazards occur alone. Impacts may also cascade across different sectors of society or amplify impacts in another sector. Perturbed parameter ensemble simulations of projections to 2080 have been generated at the UK Met Office to cover the UK at high spatial (12 km or 2.2 km) and temporal resolution (daily or sub-daily) resolution as part of the “UK Climate Projections”. We use the regional 12 km model simulations at daily resolution to consider how the frequency, duration and spatial extent of multiple extreme hazard events in the UK changes over the 21^st century. We will show case studies of multiple extreme hazard pairings that pose a risk to UK sectors, for example, the risk of hot and dry weather to agricultural harvests. By working with stakeholders that have a good understanding of their vulnerabilities and exposure, we consider multiple extreme events in a risk projection framework. This work is funded under the Strategic Priority Fund for UK Climate Resilience.