EGU2020-13560, updated on 10 Jan 2023
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

New approaches to decadal predictions on the regional scale

Gerard McCarthy1, André Düsterhus1, Catherine O'Beirne1, Stephen Ogungbenro2, Samuel T. Diabate1, Levke Caesar1, Maeve C. Upton3,4, Niamh Cahill3,4, and Andrew C. Parnell3,4
Gerard McCarthy et al.
  • 1ICARUS, Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland (
  • 2Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, Federal University of Technology Akure, Akure, Nigeria

  • 3School of Mathematics and Statistics, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland
  • 4Hamilton Institute, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland

The North Atlantic has a major influence on the climate of Europe. In the past, decadal prediction systems have shown consistent prediction skill in the North Atlantic for initialised models, indicating the potential to exploit this skill for better predictions on the continent. One prime area of potential for this approach is Ireland, due to its proximity to the Atlantic.

Until now, the prediction skill for the island of Ireland is limited, leading to the conclusion that dynamical models alone are not able to transfer the prediction skill from the North Atlantic to the surrounding land masses. Therefore, the project Aigéin, Aeráid, agus athrú Atlantaigh (A4) aims to establish new physical and statistical approaches to enhance the skill. This includes a better understanding on the oceanographic processes leading to the prediction skill in the North Atlantic as well as usage of statistical-dynamical predictions.

This contribution will give an overview of the approaches and a first look on the factors we anticipate to use in our analysis. Special attention will be given to the statistical approaches for the statistical dynamical prediction as well new verification procedures to evaluate them.

How to cite: McCarthy, G., Düsterhus, A., O'Beirne, C., Ogungbenro, S., Diabate, S. T., Caesar, L., Upton, M. C., Cahill, N., and Parnell, A. C.: New approaches to decadal predictions on the regional scale, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-13560,, 2020.


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