Risk analysis of multi-hazard in the Belt and Road region

This paper focuses on the assessment of the multi-hazard natural disaster susceptibility and disaster risk in the Belt and Road (B&R) region. It is expected to provide a reference for cooperation in disaster risk reduction among B&R countries. Based on historical disaster data from 1980 to 2018, the disaster susceptibility of the B&R countries to multi-hazard has been analyzed using random forest model. The multi-hazard risk was further assessed based on the disaster susceptibility and Monte-Carlo method. Results show that regions with high susceptibility to meteorological hazards are mostly distributed in central Africa and the coastal areas of all continents. While Himalayan-Mediterranean seismic zone is susceptible to geological hazards. Due to the different distribution of regional exposures, the risks of economic loss and the risk of population casualties also appear differently. For economic loss risk, in grid scale very high and high level take 21% area. Europe, southeast China coast, and the Indian peninsula present higher economic loss risks. In population casualties risk, very high and high level take 15% area and in national scale the central and southern parts of Eurasia show higher population casualties risk. The results provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution, sensitivity, and disaster risk of natural disasters in B&R region, and provides a reference for regional disaster prevention and reduction cooperation.