Assessment of the human health risk due to the exposure to air pollution using air quality ensemble modelling data

Several World Health Organization (WHO) studies have shown that air pollution is likely associated with an increased rate of premature mortality and morbidity, mainly attributable to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases ^[1]. The species normally considered for the evaluation are: PM₁₀, PM_2.5, O₃ and NO₂. All these compounds are typical sub products of processes of combustion and other anthropogenic activities and their presence in highly densely populated areas is commonly observed. As a result, a significant proportion of the European population is exposed to annual average concentrations of these pollutants exceeding the WHO Air Quality Guidelines (WHO-AQG), as the European Environment Agency (EEA)  reports for the year 2016 ^[1]_.  Data of air pollutants concentrations at high temporal resolution and on a large spatial scale are currently available from satellite remote sensing and air quality models. The data from the multi-year reanalysis of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) and from the DLR / POLYPHEMUS, together with the health Relative Risk (RR) values provided by the WHO, are used as input-source for the method developed by Sicard ^[2] to estimate an overall increase in health risk due to short-term exposure to air pollution. With this operation it is possible to obtain a geographical representation of the Aggregate Risk Index (ARI). This approach allows for various estimates of the spatial distribution of the increased health risk for several health endpoints, in terms of ARI, and its temporal behavior. The Sicard’s method is tested by (spatial) correlation to a real-world health data base. We especially investigate the validity of the linear additive approach for different mixtures of pollutants.

References:

^[1] European Environmental Agency, 2019, Air quality in Europe 2019 report, pages 61-70.

^[2] Sicard, P.,et al., 2012. The Aggregate Risk Index: An intuitive tool providing the health risks of air pollution to health care community. Atm Env, 46, 11-16.