Evaluating the influence of climate on the Late Bronze Age collapse in the eastern Mediterranean

During the 13th and 12th centuries BCE (3.25-3.05 kyrs BP), the prosperous and globalized Late Bronze Age (LBA) world system came to an abrupt end in the eastern Mediterranean (EM). During this time, the EM witnessed the demise of powerful and well-established empires and state systems, including the Hittite empire in Anatolia and the Mycenean palace system in the Aegean (Yakar, 2006; Deger-Jalkotzy, 2008). The end of the LBA also saw the destruction and abandonment of numerous urban centres such as Mycenae, Troy, Ugarit, across an area of approx. 6 million km² (Knapp and Manning, 2016). The causes of this widespread and critical transition in the EM’s history, often referred to as the LBA “collapse”, have been debated for several decades and remain contentious. Notably, the idea of climate change in the form of widespread drought has been postulated, with the suggestion of a 3.2 kyrs BP ‘megadrought’ event presented in the last decade (Kaniewski et al. (2013; 2015; 2017; 2019a). This PhD project addresses the climate hypothesis, by examining whether climate may have acted as a contributing factor for the LBA collapse and subsequent transition into the Early Iron Age (EIA).

In order to provide a comprehensive assessment of palaeoclimatic conditions during the LBA/IA transition, a review of all existing palaeoenvironmental  records that cover the interval 3.5-2.5 kyrs BP across the EM has been undertaken. As part of this assessment, this study also presents new high-resolution multi-proxy stalagmite records covering this time interval from Kocain and Sofular Caves in Turkey. In total, 83 records were entered into a database for assessment in order to select the key hydroclimatic proxy records to be examined in this study. The resulting assessment of the remaining 14 highly resolved records from across the EM has not provided strong evidence of a major synchronous and widespread climatic event suggestive of the supposed ‘3.2 megadrought event’. Instead, the results of this study present a highly complex picture of palaeoclimatic conditions between 3.5-2.5 kyrs BP, which is partly related to site and sample-specific factors (e.g. chronological uncertainties, cave environment) and the high degree of regional climatic variability. However, a period of increasingly arid conditions from approx. 3.3-3.1 kyrs BP is apparent in several records including Anatolian records from Uzuntarla, Sofular and Kocain Caves. Future work by this team will specifically assess this aridity evidence in the Anatolian stalagmite records, with the aim to further improve the temporal resolution and chronologic control of these records. Additionally, future work will also integrate our palaeoclimatic findings with associated archaeological evidence. Engagement with the archaeological material is critical as integrated studies can provide us with more nuanced discussions, which are needed to capture the true complexity that surrounds both the archaeology and palaeoclimatic reconstruction for this period. Significantly, this archaeological engagement therefore allows us to more accurately assess the impact that increasing aridity and possible drought events may have had on the agriculturally dependent societies of the LBA in Anatolia.