Real-world rogue wave probabilities

Despite several strong hypotheses on how rogue waves can be generated in idealized conditions, the actual real-world causes of these waves are still largely unknown. We credit this to insufficient amounts of observational data and a missing robust probabilistic framework to analyze the available data.

We adress these issues by processing over 1 billion waves measured in the North Pacific and organizing them into a comprehensive catalogue. Through a robust, machine-learning driven analysis, we then identify several characteristic sea conditions that lead to significantly higher risks to encounter a rogue wave. This, in turn, yields quantitative evidence on the relative importance of the underlying physical mechanisms.