Predictability of precipitation extremes over the Mediterranean

Intense precipitations events are associated with impacts like damages to infrastructures, economic activities, agricultural crops, power production and society in general. The ability to predict extreme precipitation events months in advance is therefore of great value in densely populated areas like the Mediterranean and may be achieved using seasonal prediction systems like the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) suite of models. Using weather regimes (WRs) from 500 hPa geopotential heights over the Mediterranean the two main objectives of this study are: first to identify how these regimes are linked to extreme precipitation events over the region using reanalysis data; and second to assess the ability of the C3S models in reproducing/predicting these extreme events. We identify four weather regimes for the winter season (DJF) describing the atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean using the 1993-2016 period as reference, i.e. maximum availability of C3S hindcasts. We thus provide an assessment of the models’s ability in predicting extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean having quantified how daily precipitation anomalies are associated to each WR.