Numerical Air Quality Forecast over East China: Advance, Uncertainty and Future

Air pollution is severely focused due to its distinct effect on climate change and adverse effect on human health, ecological system, etc. Eastern China is one of the most polluted areas in the world and many actions were taken to reduce air pollution. Numerical forecast of air quality was proved to be one of the effective ways to help to deal with air pollution. This abstract will present the advance, uncertainty and thinking about the future of the numerical air quality forecast emphasized in eastern China region. Brief history of numerical air quality modeling in Shanghai Meteorological Serveice (SMS) will be reviewed. The operational regional atmospheric environmental modeling system for eastern China (RAEMS) and its performance on forecasting the major air pollutants over eastern China region will be introduced. And uncertainty will be analyzed meanwhile challenges and actions to be done in the future are to be suggested for better service of numerical air quality forecast.