Observation-based modelling of magnetised CMEs in the inner heliosphere with EUHFORIA

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the primary source of strong space weather disturbances at Earth and other locations in the heliosphere. Understanding the physical processes involved in their formation at the Sun, propagation in the heliosphere, and impact on planetary bodies is therefore critical to improve current space weather predictions throughout the heliosphere. The capability of CMEs to drive strong space weather disturbances at Earth and other planetary and spacecraft locations primarily depends on their dynamic pressure, internal magnetic field strength, and magnetic field orientation at the impact location. In addition, phenomena such as the interaction with the solar wind and other solar transients along the way, or the pre-conditioning of interplanetary space due to the passage of previous CMEs, can significantly modify the properties of individual CMEs and alter their ultimate space weather impact. Investigating and modeling such phenomena via advanced physics-based heliospheric models is therefore crucial to improve the space weather prediction capabilities in relation to both single and complex CME events. 

In this talk, we present our progress in developing novel methods to model CMEs in the inner heliosphere using the EUHFORIA MHD model in combination with remote-sensing solar observations. We discuss the various observational techniques that can be used to constrain the initial CME parameters for EUHFORIA simulations. We present current efforts in developing more realistic magnetised CME models aimed at describing their internal magnetic structure in a more realistic fashion. We show how the combination of these two approaches allows the investigation of CME propagation and evolution throughout the heliosphere to a higher level of detail, and results in significantly improved predictions of CME impact at Earth and other locations in the heliosphere. Finally, we discuss current limitations and future improvements in the context of studying space weather events throughout the heliosphere.