A normative definition of a Bayesian prior
- The University of Toledo, Environmental Sciences, TOLEDO, United States of America (song.qian@utoledo.edu)
Applications of the Bayesian statistics require specifying a prior distribution for each unknown parameter to be estimated. The commonly used definition of a Bayesian prior distribution, information about an uncertain parameter, does not provide guidance on how to derive and formulate a prior distribution. In practice, we often use "non-informative" priors or priors based on mathematical convenience. I present a normative definition of the prior based on the shared features of the James-Stein estimator, the empirical Bayes method, and the Bayesian hierarchical model. I use the word "normative" to mean "prescriptive". It also reflects the meaning that the definition can be inconsistent with one another insofar as different types of parameters. I present two case studies where this definition guided me to formulate the modeling processes: one on modeling and predicting cyanobacterial toxin concentration in Lake Erie using chlorophyll-a concentrations (Lake Erie example) and the other on improving the accuracy of calibration-curve-based chemical measurement method (calibration-curve example). The Lake Erie example illustrates temporal exchangeable units, while the calibration-curve example showcases the ubiquity of such exchangeable units.
How to cite: Qian, S.: A normative definition of a Bayesian prior, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-17978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17978, 2020