EGU2020-18858
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18858
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Future projections of river floods hazard over the multiple CORDEX-CORE domains

Francesca Raffaele1, Fabio Di Sante1,2, and the CORDEX-CORE*
Francesca Raffaele and Fabio Di Sante and the CORDEX-CORE
  • 1The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics Section, Trieste, Italy (coppolae@ictp.it)
  • 2Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
  • *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract

One of the most largely recognized effect of the Global Warming is the change of weather extremes. The increase of extreme precipitation events is directly linked to a greater availability of precipitable water induced by a warmer atmosphere.The flood projected signals are heterogeneous and influenced by different phenomena. As an example, the rise in temperature could increase the risk of floods over the regions sensible to extreme precipitations and at the same time could reduce the risk of floods over the regions sensible to the melted snow accumulated during the cold season. In this work the CORDEX-CORE simulations completed using two different Regional Climate Models (RegCM and REMO) are used to estimate the future changes on flood risk for eight CORDEX domains (North-America, Central-America, South-America, Europe, Africa, West-Asia, East-Asia, South-East-Asia and Australasia). A river-routing model is applied to simulate the river discharge of a high resolution grid (0.06 degree) for three different driving Global Climate Models, two different scenarios (rcp2.6 and rcp8.5) and for each of the domains. The simulated discharges are hence used to fit a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to estimate the change on flood risk related to the future climate projections.

CORDEX-CORE:

Erika Coppola(1), James Ciarlo(1)(2), Gao Xuejie(3), Taleena Rae Sines (1), Abraham Torres(1), Sushant Das(1), Emanuela Pichelli (1), Russel Glazer(1), Eun-Soon Im (4), Daniela Jacob (5), Claas Teichman(5), Armelle Remedio(5)

How to cite: Raffaele, F. and Di Sante, F. and the CORDEX-CORE: Future projections of river floods hazard over the multiple CORDEX-CORE domains, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-18858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18858, 2020

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