EGU2020-19559, updated on 12 Jun 2020
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

On the development and operationalization of an impact-based forecasting system to support early action for river floods in Zambia

Stefania Giodini1, Aklilu Teklesadik1, Jannis Visser1, Orla Canavan1, Innocent Bwalya2, Irene Amuron3, and Marc van den Homberg1
Stefania Giodini et al.
  • 110, an initiative of The Netherlands Red Cross, The Hague, Netherlands (
  • 2Zambia Red Cross Society
  • 3Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
Flooding in Zambia occurs on almost an annual basis greatly affecting the livelihoods of communities. Early action is crucial to mitigate the impact of flooding but needs to be guided by an early warning that is credible and actionable, linked to situational awareness based on data.  The 510 data team at the Netherlands Red Cross has been working together with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Zambia Red Cross Society, Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA) and Zambia Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) to develop a data driven early warning system to support impact based early action implementation. The system has been co-designed with the relevant local stakeholders and  integrates a hydrological model with a vulnerability capacity assessment based on secondary data for the whole country at the highest level of possible granularity (district level). A threshold based trigger model has been developed together with local decision makers to activate the system with a lead time up to 7 days. The system is being integrated in the Emergency Operation Centre operated by Zambia's DMMU as a part of the country standard early action protocol. This paper describes the system design, results from the first activations and lessons learned. 

How to cite: Giodini, S., Teklesadik, A., Visser, J., Canavan, O., Bwalya, I., Amuron, I., and van den Homberg, M.: On the development and operationalization of an impact-based forecasting system to support early action for river floods in Zambia, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-19559,, 2020

Display materials

Display file

Comments on the display material

AC: Author Comment | CC: Community Comment | Report abuse

Display material version 1 – uploaded on 06 May 2020
  • CC1: Comment on EGU2020-19559, Shingirai Nangombe, 07 May 2020

    Hie Stefania. I was not able to attend to your presentation when you presented it, but all the same I have a couple of questions. Were you able to test the system with Cyclone Idai, or the system was not ready yet at the time? Also, is there are a plan to introduce this very useful system to other countries within southern Africa, like Malawi and Mozambique where there are even more susceptible to floods from cyclones?.