EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Decadal Prediction of Indian Ocean Dipole

Feba Francis1, Ashok Karumuri1, and Matthew Collins2
Feba Francis et al.
  • 1University of Hyderabad, Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, India (
  • 2University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, UK


Decadal Prediction is the prediction of climate for the next 5–20 years. Decadal Prediction has gained great importance as it tries to bridge the gap between seasonal and Centennial (50-100 year) predictions creating a balance between initial conditions and boundary conditions. We analysed the model output from CMIP5 decadal runs of nine models. Our results show that two of the decadal hindcasts show prediction skills of significance for the Indian Ocean Dipole for up to a decade. The Indian Ocean Dipole is one of the leading modes of climate variability in the tropics, which affects global climate. As already established, the models also show year-long lead predictability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. We found no significant skills for the Indian Summer Monsoon. We are presently looking for the source of the lead predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole which appears to be due to links from the Southern Ocean. These decadal prediction skills and predictability for a climate driver like the Indian Ocean Dipole have immense helpfulness for climate science and society in general.

How to cite: Francis, F., Karumuri, A., and Collins, M.: Decadal Prediction of Indian Ocean Dipole, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-198,, 2019