Drivers of interannual sea ice variability on the Arctic continental margin north of Svalbard

Sea ice concentration along the Arctic continental margin north of Svalbard is in decline, but superimposed on this trend is considerable interannual variability. Many factors impact sea ice in this region, including atmospheric cooling and heating, winds, sea ice advection, and oceanic heat transport associated with the inflow of Atlantic Water, and regional sea ice cover remains difficult to predict. We present observations of upper ocean temperature between 2012 and 2017 from an ocean mooring located on the continental shelf break north of the Barents Sea, together with concurrent time series of atmospheric variables and sea ice concentration, drift, and thickness, derived from satellite and reanalysis data. While the inflow of Atlantic Water undoubtedly plays a key role in maintaining the area north of Svalbard ice-free through much of the year, variations in upper ocean temperature do not explain major interannual sea ice anomalies during the study period. Instead, we find that the magnitude of sea ice advection from the north and east was a major driver of interannual sea ice variability during our study.