EGU2020-20440
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20440
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Numerical modeling of the natural and anthropogenic factors influence on the past and future changes in polar, mid-latitude and tropical ozone

Sergei Smyshlyaev1, Polina Blakitnaya1, Maxim Motsakov, and Vener Galin2
Sergei Smyshlyaev et al.
  • 1Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Meteorology, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation (smyshl@rshu.ru)
  • 2Unsitute of Numerical Mathematics Russian Academy of Scienses, Moscow, Rissian Federation (venergalin@yandex.ru)

The INM RAS – RSHU chemistry-climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere is used to compare the role of natural and anthropogenic factors in the observed and expected variability of stratospheric ozone. Numerical experiments have been carried out on several scenarios of separate and combined effects of solar activity, stratospheric aerosol, sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances emissions on ozone for the period from 1979 to 2050. Simulations for the past and present periods are compared to the results of ground-based and satellite observations, as well as MERRA and ERA-Interim re-analysis. Estimation of future ozone changes are based on different scenarios of changes in solar activity and emissions of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases, as well as the possibility of large volcanic aerosol emissions at different periods of time.

How to cite: Smyshlyaev, S., Blakitnaya, P., Motsakov, M., and Galin, V.: Numerical modeling of the natural and anthropogenic factors influence on the past and future changes in polar, mid-latitude and tropical ozone, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20440, 2020

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