Dynamic Rupture and Ground Motion Modeling of the 2016 M6.2 Amatrice and M6.5 Norcia, Central Italy, Earthquakes Constrained by Bayesian Dynamic Source Inversion

The complex evolution of earthquake rupture during the 2016 Central Italy sequence and the uniquely dense seismological observations provide an opportunity to better understand the processes controlling earthquake dynamics, strong ground motion, and earthquake interaction. 

We here use fault initial stress and friction conditions constrained by a novel Bayesian dynamic source inversion as a starting point for high-resolution dynamic rupture scenarios. The best-fitting forward models are chosen out of ~10⁶ highly efficient simulations restricted to a simple planar dipping fault. Such constrained, highly heterogeneous dynamic models fit strong motion data well. Utilizing the open-source SeisSol software (www.seissol.org), we then take into account non-planar (e.g., listric) fault geometries, inelastic off-fault damage rheology, free surface effects and topography which cannot be accounted for in the highly efficient dynamic source inversion. SeisSol is based on the discontinuous Galerkin method on unstructured tetrahedral meshes optimized for modern supercomputers. 

We investigate the effects of including the realistic modeling ingredients on rupture dynamics and strong ground motions up to 5 Hz. Synthetic PGV mapping reveals that specifically fault listricity decreases ground motion amplitudes by  ~50 percent in the extreme near field on the foot-wall. On the hanging-wall shaking is increased by ~150 percent as a consequence of wave-focusing effects within 10 km away from the fault. Dynamic modeling thus suggests that geometrical fault complexity is important for seismic hazard assessment adjacent to dipping faults but difficult to identify by kinematic source inversions.