On uncertainty in geoscience decision making

Uncertainty is a feature of all science, but geoscientists tend to operate under a higher degree of uncertainty at every level of scientific decision making (Bárdossy and Fodor, 2001). Geoscientists work in fundamentally less predictable environments, where direct observation and experimental control are difficult or impossible due to the large time spans of geologic processes. We are cognitive psychologists who collaborate with geoscientists to better understand the influence of uncertainty on geologic decision making, and to identify the ways expert scientists constrain decision making using heuristics (i.e., rules of thumb).

This presentation will review our work on geologic decision making under uncertainty, focusing on how scientists use heuristics when making spatiotemporal data collection decisions. Our research demonstrates that, when the gradient of data value in the environment is uncertain, scientists use heuristics to decide where to go (in space) to collect data. Heuristics are efficient and effective in many circumstances, but can leave experts vulnerable to decision bias. In ongoing research, we explore whether new field workflows (uncertainty mapping) or mobile robotic platforms (terrestrial, aerial) can debias decision making. Our research agenda is translational, with the goal of improving scientists’ interpretation of geologic phenomena in the field.